James Salinas

Game Note

The handicapping grind of the NFL sports betting season culminates on Sunday with what is essentially an ATS coin flip matchup between conference champions KC/SF in Super Bowl LIV. There are not enough applicable superlatives to describe KC QB Mahomes’ importance to both the Chiefs franchise and the NFL’s current marketing campaign to promote a new era of high scoring gunslingers. Mahomes’ superb playmaking resume is paralleled by his genuinely selfless leadership qualities and public facing charisma, creating a new generation of NFL fans. Conversely SF HC Shanahan comes from a lineage of old school offensive football using double TE formations with a lead FB designed to pound opposing defenses into submission. Shanahan’s commitment to the zone running game has allowed for innovative misdirection play action throws to star TE Kittle vs overmatched linebackers to sustain drives and systematically wear down opponents. On the other side of the ball the 49ers defense has been all the rage for media scribes these past two weeks. The recency bias from two dominant playoff wins spawned the current storyline of how impenetrable the 49ers' defensive front has played and the relentless pressure they apply to opposing QBs. Omitted from this narrative are the December defensive letdowns that allowed a 5 TD game to Drew Brees, a 4th quarter comeback win by Matt Ryan, and a 300+ yard aerial performance from Jared Goff. Including playoff games, HC Andy Reid is 23-5 off a bye week, which is essentially what the 2 week schedule lag provides for the Super Bowl teams. This prep time should reveal that SF sent 5 DL to IR this season leaving the rotation thin on experience, so expect KC to execute a no-huddle attack with the intent to limit defensive substitutions and exploit an exhausted pass rush as the game progresses. Mahomes is the best player on the field and the magnitude of the SB will showcase his unmatched talent as a statement that he is the top player in the NFL, so trust the league’s best player to play big in the world’s biggest game and take KC -1 to win Super Bowl LIV and closeout a profitable betting season for Sharp Angle Sports subscribers.

Game Note

The difficulty of defeating the same team twice in a season is a common sports adage that the SF 49ers will need to dispel in today’s NFC Championship game to sustain their Super Bowl aspirations this year. While watching game film of the GB/SF matchup in Week 12, bettors could rightly surmise that the Packers were outclassed at nearly every position on the field. SF displayed more speed, power, and desire from start to finish as the 49ers thoroughly dominated that game in late November. As a result the bookmakers have adjusted the line for today’s game nearly 5 points in favor of the 49ers, anticipating the betting public will back the home team based on the last game’s result. However, the greatest intangible in athletics is competitive pride, which will be on full display for the Packers today. The advantage of taking the type of beating GB received is that they’ve seen the best from SF and can adjust to the speed and intensity of the 49ers. Expect a max-protect offensive game plan from the Packers, allowing QB Rodgers time to dissect the SF secondary for explosive plays downfield for an early lead. SF QB Garoppolo’s inexperience will be overwhelmed by the pressure of needing to lead a team to win as the favorite, so bet GB +8 and sprinkle a little on the Packers moneyline at + 300 for a value play as well.

Game Note

A contrast of NFL offensive eras clash this Sunday in the AFC Championship. The Tennessee Titans play a throwback retro-style of offense that grounds and pounds opponents led by bruising RB Henry who runs over and thru today’s finesse defenders. In an age where defenses rarely conduct padded full-contact practices, Henry takes full advantage of current NFL rules that have severely limited defenders’ tackling techniques which allow him to initiate contact and wear down opponents over four quarters. In contrast, the fast-break offense that Kansas City HC Andy Reid has constructed around the phenomenal play of QB Mahomes has made the Chiefs’ offense virtually impossible to stop this season. The creativity of Reid’s formations and Mahomes’ ability to make every throw in the playbook has brought KC within one game of the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons. This clash of styles played out in Week #10 as each offense executed their game plans to near perfection with Tennessee securing a last second victory at home in a thoroughly entertaining contest. Aside from the venue switch, little else has changed for this rematch as both offenses have maintained their dominant play while the defenses have performed at levels not worthy of a championship contender. While KC’s fan base will undoubtedly be oiled and revved for this game, their bravado can’t extend to the playing field to make tackles and neither does the home team’s defense. KC’s lone alpha tackler DL Jones is a gimpy game-time decision, leaving his defensive brethren to contend with the physicality of the Titans’ run game and playing in temperatures (single-digit wind chill) not conducive for an aerial show should benefit the suspect Tennessee defense to make this a competitive contest. With a trip to the ‘ship on the line in what may come down to the final possession, take the Titans with the insurance of a pointspread (+7.5) that bookmakers have set to take advantage of a betting public that is typically swayed by the pizzazz of the passing game and doesn’t relate to the importance of football's primitive physicality played in its purist form.

Game Note

Seattle travels to Green Bay to conclude the Divisional Playoff Round on Sunday night in what could be the best matchup of this weekend’s four games. Seattle’s troubles along the offensive line continue as replacements at LT, LG & C will face an underrated Packer pass rush lead by ferocious Za’Darius Smith across the line of scrimmage. The Packers offense hasn’t been nearly as dependent on QB Rodgers as in years past as RB Jones has led a resurgent GB rushing attack. Seattle’s defense finally played at full strength last week and is far more athletic at the line of scrimmage and should be able to contain the GB run game and apply pressure on Rodgers between the tackles. Both teams sport top-shelf playmakers at QB but the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field will be just that on Sunday as a weekend snow storm will drop windchill temperatures into the low teens bringing with it heavy air, cold hands, and slow feet so bet UNDER 46.5 as the play.

Game Note

As the NFL playoffs progress the intensity of the games ascend to a championship level. For the past two weeks Tennessee has performed under a playoff urgency during a Week 17 win and advance scenario against the Texans, and utilized that momentum with a winning focus vs. the Patriots in the wild card round. Meanwhile the Ravens coasted into the playoffs as they clinched the AFC North during a Week 15 thrashing of the NYJ. Week 16 drew a winning yet uninspired Ravens’ performance vs. the hapless Browns, clinching home field advantage allowing Baltimore to sit a majority of its starters during their season finale against the Steelers. Motivation is typically not a factor when handicapping the NFL playoffs, but determining if a team is physically ready to match the speed of a playoff game is and the Ravens key playmakers haven’t taken a meaningful snap in 3 weeks. QB Jackson and the stellar Baltimore run game will need a few possessions to work through the rust while facing a run-blitz heavy Tennessee scheme. The Titans offense plays alpha style football and matching the heightened level of physicality Tennessee has recently competed at could take the Ravens defense a quarter or two to emulate as well. While Baltimore’s defensive front is stout, its linebackers are not and neither is CB Peters tackling ability in the run game. Expect another Titans’ run-heavy offensive game plan and a slow start from the Ravens so take Tennessee +10 as the bet. *Also recommend Titans +6 for a 1st half bet.*

Game Note

The physicality of a full NFL season tests the roster depth of every team still standing come January and Sunday’s Wild Card Playoff matchup between SEA & PHI will demonstrate just how vital that depth can be to playoff success. Both teams are severely injured offensively as the Seahawks will be starting backups at LT, LG, C, TE, and newly acquired 4th string RB Lynch, while the Eagles are missing arguably the league’s best offensive lineman in RG Brooks and will most likely be without stud RT Johnson. Couple those OL injuries with the Eagles entire Week #1 starting WR trio down for the count and All-Pro TE Ertz hampered with a fractured rib and lacerated kidney. With both offenses incredibly limited for this game the DLs for each team should dominate in the trenches making each possession a fist fight for field position, so buckle up for an old-fashioned playoff slugfest and bet UNDER the total of 45.

Game Note

As a new decade begins many NFL fans are salivating at the potential to watch the evil empire that is the New England Patriots’ two-decade dynasty come to an end this Saturday. Throughout this season the Pats have looked slow, uninspired, and vulnerable to defeat. Marching into Foxborough is the upstart Tennessee Titans with an offense that bullies the opposition with downhill RB Henry and a re-energized passing game led by the midseason insertion of QB Tannehill and his ability to extend plays and execute downfield throws with confidence. However, to advance to the Divisional Playoff Round former Pats LB and current TEN HC Vrabel will have to match coaching wits against his defensive mentor HC Belichick who will undoubtedly have a schematic answer to limit the Titan running attack and force Tannehill to beat the Pats’ stellar secondary to win the game. The Patriots’ playoff experience shows up on Saturday night and their championship mettle wins out so bet NE -5 and endure the empire for at least one more week.

Game Note

In recent years the NFL has reworked its scheduling approach to week 17 to keep games competitive. The season finale for the league consists of all division matchups and start times are flexible to ensure early games are not correlated with games played later in the day. Flexing the SF/SEA game to Sunday is the perfect nightcap to what should be an exciting day of football. With the NFC West title and a potential #1 playoff seed on the line, tonight’s game will be played with maximum intensity and emotion. Seattle’s recent wave of emotion from losing its top 3 RBs to bringing back the beloved Marshawn Lynch has re-energized the team and the city. Despite what figures to be a rusty Beast Mode, don’t underestimate the emotional lift his presence will bring to the atmosphere at Century Link Field tonight. This is the 49ers biggest game since their Super Bowl appearance seven years ago and this will be QB Garrapolo’s opportunity to establish himself as a player capable of winning a championship. Seahawks’ QB Wilson has proven himself in big games and will play with the confidence of a champion and lead his team to victory tonight, so take the bonus of a home underdog and play Seattle +3.

Game Note

Week #17 of the NFL season is unlike any other week as the psychology of motivation plays a critical role in the sports handicapping process. Aside from a handful of teams competing for a playoff position or resting starters in preparation for the postseason, many teams are looking ahead to next year as their season ends today. Going inside a team’s head to determine its collective game effort is the ultimate challenge for bettors, and the Browns/Bengals matchup serves as this year’s week 17 case study. Cleveland’s self-imposed preseason hype put the team in the crosshairs of every NFL team as the Browns took their opponents best shot every week. This talented Browns roster lacked accomplished leadership from both a player and coaching perspective and their season has been a total disaster. Although the Bengals 2019 record is a league worst 1-14, today will be the final game for QB Dalton in a Cincy uniform. Say what you will about Dalton’s ability to play QB, but his leadership in the locker room and genuine engagement to community service is greatly respected by his Bengals’ teammates and the residents of Cincinnati. With the Browns’ coaches looking for work after today and its players booking vacation plans, the Bengals team effort to win Dalton’s last game will play out as a small home underdog, so trust the psychological process of team sports and bet Cincy +2.5.

Game Note

This late in the NFL season the number of teams competing for a coveted playoff spot narrows to just a few. Tiebreaker scenarios can run deep and scoreboard watching becomes the norm as games scheduled early are correlated with later scheduled contests. The MNF matchup between GB/Minn fits that scenario as the Packers need one win to clinch the division and a Vikings win secures a wild-card berth. However, prior to kickoff on Monday the Vikings may have already made the playoffs with a Rams loss on Saturday night at SF (which I expect will happen). If the Rams do lose the Vikings’ playoff anxiety will have been relieved and there may be a subconscious let down on Monday night as the reality of winning the division hinges on GB losing both to Minnesota and the inept Lions the following week. As for the matchup Minnesota has already shut down dynamic RB Cook for the remainder of the regular season and his backup Mattison has yet to practice this week. QB Cousins has benefited greatly from the infusion of Gary Kubiak’s zone run game as Cousins has been tremendous making throws out of play action. Without the threat of a running game, Cousins will be forced into hero-ball mode so expect some plays made on the back end of the Packer defense setting up QB Rodgers with short fields to exploit a vulnerable Minnesota secondary. With the NFC North division title in reach for Green Bay, I’ll side with the decision making ability of Rodgers (24-2 TD/INT ratio) and bet the Packers +5.5.

Game Note

Although the ARI/SEA contest is a division game, this scheduling matchup sets up for a less than inspiring effort from the Seahawks. Regardless of the outcome this Sunday, the Seahawks will be the NFC West Division champs by beating SF in a Week #17 season finale showdown. Couple the poor scheduling spot with a Seattle roster that is severely riddled with nagging injuries to key defensive playmakers LBs Wagner & Kendricks, DL Clowney & Woods (suspension), DBs Griffin & Diggs. Expect several backups to take the field in what is essentially a meaningless Week #16 game for Seattle. The Seahawks will hope to get through this game without further injury on defense while executing a vanilla offensive game plan in lieu of the follow week's game. The Cardinals and rookie QB Murray will look to build upon the previous week’s beat down of Cleveland by finishing the season with positive momentum and bring a spirited effort on Sunday so take the Cardinals +9 as the bet.

Game Note

The propaganda medium that is the NFL injury report can be a challenge to navigate for sports fans and sports bettors alike. Dallas QB Prescott reportedly did not throw a meaningful pass during practice this past week due to what is suspected to be a rotator cuff contusion in his throwing shoulder. Despite this inactivity Prescott was not listed on the Cowboys’ final injury report, hence the importance of practice reports that detailed his participation as limited and the social media scribes reporting that no passes were delivered all week due to the injury. A rotator cuff injury would negatively impact Prescott’s ability to push the ball down the field with velocity and accuracy, which will limit the Cowboys ability to exploit a suspect Philadelphia secondary. The Eagles will also be offensively challenged in the passing game as their starting WR trio this week will consist of 2 rookies and practice squad player. This is essentially a playoff game with the winner taking control of the NFC East title and the #4 playoff seed, so expect a low offensive output by both teams and bet the total UNDER 46 as the play.

Game Note

Matchups and motives fluctuate weekly in the NFL and a case study in identifying these handicapping angles will be tested as the Colts visit the Saints on MNF. The Saints will be without four key run stoppers in DL starters Davenport and Rankins, LB Alonso, and SS Bell. The Saints’ defensive backups will have to engage with one of the league’s best OL in Indy, so expect RB Mack and TE Doyle to reap the statistical benefits in this matchup and keep QB Brees and his offensive brethren on the sidelines. Matchups aside, finding a realistic motive for the Saints to play at max-intensity is difficult to find. The Saints have already clinched the NFC South title and lost their grip on the top playoff seed after last week’s loss to SF, so the outcome of this game is insignificant as New Orleans will most likely be the #3 seed come January. The Saints are a heavy favorite on Monday and will look to survive any further injuries and advance to the playoffs healthy, so bet the Colts +9.

Game Note

San Francisco’s thrilling victory at New Orleans last week put the 49ers in control of the NFC’s #1 playoff seed. However that win came at a high cost in personnel as SF lost C Richburg and DT Jones for the season and suffered injuries to five other defensive starters that will miss today’s game vs Atlanta. Ultimately the 49ers playoff seeding destiny will be determined in their week #17 showdown at Seattle. Meanwhile, having just completed the 3-game scheduling gauntlet vs powerhouse division leaders GB, Baltimore, and New Orleans, it’s likely the emotional commitment to provide a competitive effort will be limited for SF on Sunday. The Levi’s Stadium scoreboard operator will have plenty of work today as both teams should trade scores throughout the game, so take the underdog Falcons and the inflated spread of +10.5.

Game Note

As the NFL schedule grinds its way towards season’s end the Denver Broncos couldn’t have asked for a better scheduling setup to play the Houston Texans. Fresh off an emotional win against the Patriots last week on SNF and an enormous division game looming in Week 15 vs the Titans, the Texans are tasked this week with playing a last place Broncos team with nothing to lose. Not only is this game an absolute flat spot for Houston they also do not matchup well vs the Broncos. The Texans strength is its passing game led by dynamic QB Watson, however Denver has rebuilt its secondary into a competent 2019 version of the no fly zone. Houston will also be without vertical speedster WR Fuller condensing the field for Denver’s safeties allowing for more run support near the line of scrimmage. In what should be an uneventful, low-scoring contest take Denver +9 as the bet.

Game Note

The NY Jets currently have the highest payroll sitting on the injured reserve list at over $61 million and will also be without the services of two starting CBs and defensive leader S Adams today too. On the other sideline is a Miami team that starts five rookies on defense including three in the secondary and has given up the second most td passes in the league (29). In a game with limited playmakers on either defense QBs Darnold and Fitzpatrick should have plenty of opportunities to sling the ball downfield for big scoring plays today so play OVER 46 total points scored.

Game Note

NFL schedule makers didn’t do the 49ers any favors by scheduling three consecutive high-intensity games vs Super Bowl contenders in GB, Baltimore and New Orleans, but this matchup vs the Saints is too good to not bet on. New Orleans’ left side of the OL is banged up and should be ravaged today by a ferocious SF D-line. QB Brees also doesn’t possess the arm strength he once had to stretch the field which will allow SF to play tighter to the line to box in RB Kamara as well. The Saints are also hurting on defense as starting LBs Klein and Alonso are out, so look for a big day out of the 49ers run game as they pound the rock and control the clock. For as great a season as the 49ers have had their 10-2 record currently puts them as the 5-seed and they would have to go on the road in the wild-card round if the playoffs started today, while the Saints have already clinched its division and sits atop the NFC standings. Expect the 49ers to play with more urgency today and put a hurting on the Saints in the Big Easy so play SF +2 as the bet.

Game Note

National TV NFL pundits with narrow viewpoints have targeted a time-filler narrative that Chargers’ QB Rivers should retire at seasons end and spend his post-nfl career with his litter of children. The sidebar to the Rivers’ story however is the multitude of injuries this Chargers team has suffered, particularly in the secondary and OL. The LAC locker room headline this week reads “Reinforcements on the mend,” as starting Pro Bowl safeties James and Phillips return from IR and both starting OT will also play this week in Denver. The return of these 4 starters should provide this veteran team some much needed motivational juice to finish out the season competitively. That is not the case for the Broncos as they continue to hold open tryouts for the 2020 season, in particular under center where rookie QB Locke is active for the first time this year and will see the field (probably from his back) playing behind one of the worst OL in the NFL. LAC pass rushers Bosa and Ingram will look to meet contract incentives and pad their sack totals vs. a lifeless Denver offense and Rivers will have time to find his form and top shelf skill players and quiets the talking heads as he and his healthy Charger teammates punish the Broncos and cover the -3.5.

Game Note

Green Bay arrived in New York this week nursing its collective confidence after being thoroughly humiliated on SNF by a dominate 49ers ballclub. Fortunately for the Packers the NYG will provide the perfect elixir to cure Green Bay’s ailing pride. The Giants are in full youth movement mode and QB Rodgers will take full advantage of a NY secondary starting 3 rookies thrust into their on the job training roles. As expected NYG rookie QB Jones has regressed from a promising start to his season and will find an angry Packer defense looking to rebound from last week’s embarrassing performance and will show no mercy to the young gunslinger, so bet the Packers -6.5 as the play.

Game Note

SF travels to Baltimore today seeking to find the answer of how to stop the freight train that is the Ravens’ rushing attack. In what looks to be a fantastic matchup of the Ravens offense vs the 49ers hammer of a defense, SF will have help beyond their 53 man roster today as the forecast calls for rain throughout the game which should make for a slightly slower playing field for speedy QB Jackson. The 49ers will also have another big advantage facing a shuffled OL for Baltimore as the Ravens lost starting center Skura for the season and will start undrafted rookie OL Mekari to take his place, which will be an enormous challenge vs the SF front 4. Additionally the SF offense comes to town as healthy as they’ve been all season giving HC Shanahan a full arsenal to attack a suspect Baltimore back seven. In what should turn out to be an incredibly physical and intense contest that could come down to the final possession take SF +6 as the play.

Game Note

For your NFL voyeuristic pleasure episode #11 of the Cleveland Browns' dysfunctional family reality show broadcasts live from FirstEnergy Stadium today at 1PM ET on (fittingly) FOX. Suppressing my urge to provide a scathing op-ed regarding the fiasco that ensued at the end of the Browns recent victory over Pittsburgh, the aftermath will have an impact on today’s contest against Miami. The Browns defense will be without the suspended pass rush talents of DE Garrett and DT Ogunjobi along with injuries to DE Vernon, SS Burnett, and SCB Murray, leaving an already vulnerable unit even more susceptible to scoring plays. On the opposite sideline today is a Miami roster engaged in a full youth movement, especially on defense as they will start seven players with less than two years experience including five rookies. The holiday arrives early for QBs Mayfield and Fitzpatrick who will be thankful to face minimal pressure in their respective pockets leading to multiple reads and explosive plays downfield vs. inexperienced players, so bet OVER the game total of 45.5.

Game Note

Fresh off a bye week after a primetime road win at SF, Seattle struts into Philadelphia full of confidence and swagger reminiscent of their recent Super Bowl teams. Seahawks HC Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider have done a masterful job in retooling Seattle’s roster while maintaining a competitive ballclub since winning the Super Bowl six years ago. The Eagles’ ability to sustain success since their SB victory two years ago faces series doubt as this year’s team has not met their over-hyped preseason expectations. Philly’s offensive playmakers have regressed substantially this year leading to anonymous Twitter burner account fingers pointing at the inconsistent play of QB Wentz. The growing pressure to win along with key injuries at RB, WR, and RT Lane Johnson will allow the Seattle DL to win at the line of scrimmage pushing Wentz into hero mode and force throws to receivers who aren’t open. Meanwhile QB Wilson will show why he’s a MVP candidate by utilizing his ability to extend plays outside the pocket to avoid the Eagles pass rush and make deep throws against an over-matched Eagles secondary. Seattle will maintain its status as a SB contender today while their fragile opponent across the field continues to underachieve, so bet the Seahawks +1.5.

Game Note

Monday Night Football features two teams looking to bounce back from crushing defeats last week. KC blew a 4th quarter lead to a mediocre Titans club and the Chargers offensive ineptitude made the Raiders defense look serviceable, which it isn’t. Looking ahead to Monday, KC QB Mahomes claims to be completely healthy after dealing with leg injuries all season and for the first time since week #1 the OL may actually have all five starters back together for MNF. Unfortunately for the Chargers their OL has been decimated by injuries with no reinforcements coming and QB Rivers’ play has suffered to the point that this week he talked potential retirement at season’s end. Despite the players grumbling HC Lynn made the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs the Chargers’ training ground this past week to prepare for the attitude in Mexico City (7200 ft) which is the site of this week’s game. Whether that helps with conditioning is inconsequential as the Chargers secondary has backups at every position that KC HC Reid will exploit from multiple formations allowing a healthy Mahomes to test the Chargers’ newfound endurance as they continually chase KC’s speed to the endzone, so bet KC -4.

Game Note

Next on the NFL scheduling menu is Arizona vs. SF. The 49ers once again hobble into this Sunday’s contest as big favorites against the last place divisional opponent Cardinals. There is not enough space in this writeup to list all the injuries SF is currently nursing, but the amount of talent sitting on the sideline had a significant impact on the 49ers home loss to the Seahawks last Monday night. With a prime time matchup vs the NFC North leading Packers on next week’s schedule today’s contest vs. an Arizona team the 49ers defeated just two weeks ago is another example of an NFL scheduling sandwich game for SF. While the Cards aren’t winning many games for fans to cheer Arizona is a sports bettor’s dream team as they are 7-3 ATS this season including 4-1 on the road. The home crowd can’t possibly match last week’s fervor in the stands nor will the home team match last week’s emotional intensity on the field, so expect a 49er team trying to simply survive today while looking towards next week’s showdown against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Arizona +10 is the play.

Game Note

Sandwich games abound in Week #11 and the Broncos/Vikings matchup sits atop the NFL scheduling menu. Fresh of an impressive Sunday night win at Dallas last week, the Vikings return to frigid Minneapolis to play the non-conference AFC West cellar dwellers from Denver. With an upcoming bye week on Minnesota’s schedule the last place Broncos are but a mere distraction from the sun and fun that most likely awaits many Vikings’ players in need of a break from the NFL grind. Denver comes in fresh and healthy from its own vacation bye week giving HC Fangio two weeks to prepare his defense for an opponent he dominated as Bears’ DC last year, including a Week 17 win at Minnesota that knocked the Vikings out of a playoff spot. Fangio will key on RB Cook and force QB Cousins to have to make plays downfield without favorite target WR Thielen. Denver’s pass rush should harass Cousins as the game gets tight, giving the Broncos secondary multiple chances to make plays off of poor reads by the rattled QB. With the Vikings subconsciously having one foot moving towards their first class airline seat, expect a more competitive effort from the visiting team so order Denver +10 to satiate your sports betting appetite.