Sharp Notes Week 10 NFL and Week 11 CFB

(Kirby Lee - USA Today Sports)

(Kirby Lee - USA Today Sports)

James Salinas - NFL Week 10 (1-1-1) Overall: 14-15-1 (47% ATS)

Game: Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns (-3)

Selection: Buffalo Bills +3

Score: Buffalo Bills 16 - Cleveland Browns 19

Result: PUSH

Notes: The dysfunctional family that is the Cleveland Browns has its weekly NFL mandated therapy session today, but expect no sympathy from the visiting Buffalo Bills. The Browns have been an over-hyped disaster this season and HC Kitchens is clearly not qualified to diagnose that his ballclub's personality disorder has assumed the identity of prima donna QB Mayfield, as they do more talking off the field than on. Conversely, Buffalo HC McDermott is the legitimate leader of the Bills team that has taken on his personality of discipline and toughness leading to a winning 6-2 record to date. Buffalo comes in healthy as the entire 53-man roster practiced all week, while the Browns are banged up at TE, LB, DE, and just cut 2nd leading tackler Whitehead for his belligerent social media outburst following last week's loss to Denver. Expect no quarter given from the Bills today as they play alpha football and crush whatever heart, if any, is left in this Browns team so bet Buffalo +3.

Game: Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys (O/U 48)

Selection: Under

Score: Minnesota 28 - Dallas 24

Result: Loss

Notes: Minnesota travels to Dallas tonight reeling from last week's loss at KC. The Vikings' defense uncharacteristically gave up multiple explosive plays due to poor tackling and undisciplined over-pursuit. Expect HC Zimmer to refocus his team on the Dallas run game and contain QB Prescott's mobility with an inspired and disciplined defensive effort. The Cowboys front 7 will key on Minnesota RB Cook and force QB Cousins into 3rd and long scenarios, which will lead to 4th and punt situations. This should be a physically grinding contest as both teams will play field position and run the ball, leading to a running clock and limited scoring so take UNDER 48 as the play.

Game: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49'ers (-6.5)

Selection: Seattle +6.5

Score: Seattle 27 - San Francisco 24

Result: Win

Notes: There are not enough superlatives to describe the season QB Russell Wilson is having in Seattle, but he's definitely worth the overpriced premium I pay my cable provider to watch his weekly performances. The Seahawks are loaded with explosive receivers and RB Carson has become the bruiser HC Carroll loves to pound between the tackles. With the loss of SF 2nd leading tackler LB Alexander, Seattle should also be able to exploit the rookie inexperience of replacement LB Greenlaw in pass coverage for conversions on 3rd down keeping Wilson on the field for additional scoring chances. Seattle's defense has been porous vs the pass this season, however the SF offense limps into Monday night at the OL and TE positions, most notably top target Kittle who I suspect will not suit up. Kittle is the offensive heart for SF from a receiving, blocking, and inspirational perspective, so his loss will severely limit the playbook options for the 49ers. Monday Night Football finally has a marquee matchup to promote and this game should meet the hyped expectations in a competitive divisional game where the outcome could come down to the final possession. That said take the points and bet Seattle +6.5 and enjoy watching a great football game!

Brad Feinberg - CFB Week 11 (4-0) Overall: 18-11 (62% ATS)

Game: Penn State @ Minnesota (+7)

Selection: Minnesota +7

Score: Penn State 26 - Minnesota 31

Result: Win

Notes: Call me stubborn. I have been called a lot worse. But every time I watch this PSU team play, I feel like they are the second best team on the field. Credit to them, they keep finding ways to win. But outside of star WR KJ Hamler, who is truly spectacular, I find this team to have no one else who is even average on the offensive side of the ball. Minnesota is somewhat of a fake 8-0 due to an easy schedule. But I made this line PSU -3. So getting 7, I think offers tremendous value. I actually think Minnesota wins this game outright, but I expect it to be a close 1 score game and thus Minnesota +7 is the play.

Game: Illinois @ Michigan State (-14.5)

Selection: Illinois +14.5

Score: Illinois 37 - Michigan State 34

Result: Win

Notes: What in the world has MSU done to be a 14.5 favorite? The answer is NOTHING. They have one of the worst offenses in the nation and there is no guarantee they will even score 15 points. Illinois is no great shakes. Far from it, but they have played much better as of late and I think you can make the argument they are even the better team right now. I am not calling for an outright upset, but I do think this game stays within 10. Illinois +14.5 is the play.

Game: Iowa @ Wisconsin (-9.5)

Selection: Iowa +9.5

Score: Iowa 22 - Wisconsin 24

Result: Win

Notes: Iowa has an excellent defense. Obviously they are challenged offensively. But in a low totaled game such as this one, it's only 38, give me a team with a top notch defense getting over a TD. Wisconsin got overrated in their big win over Michigan earlier in the season. They are a good quality team, but I don't think it will be easy for them to win this game by more than 7. I made this line 7. In a game that I expect to be a 1 score game, getting over 7 makes the Hawkeyes the easy side. Iowa +7 is the play

Game: Missouri @ Georgia (-16)

Selection: Georgia -16

Score: Missouri 0 - Georgia 27

Result: Win

Notes: Finally. Finally Georgia showed me something last week. They played their best game of the season to beat a very good Florida team. Missouri on the other hand I find to be continuously overrated by the lines makers. Especially on the road where they have been absolutely a train wreck. Georgia's defense has been elite all season and I expect them to easily hold down Missouri in this one. I think we have one team on the upside and the other on a downside. Not only do I expect Georgia to cover this game, I expect them to be covering the game at halftime. Bulldogs -16 is the play.

Anthony Stalter - CFB Week 11 (2-0) Overall: 8-5-1 (57% ATS)

Game: Texas Tech @ West Virginia (+2.5)

Selection: Texas Tech -2.5

Score: Texas Tech 38 - West Virginia 17

Result: Win

Notes: That was a horrific loss by Texas Tech two weeks ago to Kansas. There's no other way to say it. Only needing to fall on a blocked kick to provide a victory, Douglas Coleman III ran with the ball before attempting a lateral that the Jayhawks recovered with two seconds left. With those two ticks, Kansas kicked a 32-yard game-winning field goal as time expired to complete a 17-point comeback. That said, the bye came at the right time for Tech, which should have been able to use the off week to regroup. The Red Raiders have forced 14 turnovers in their last six games, which includes eight interceptions in their last four contests. They have a plus-5 turnover margin and have shut out the opposition in the first quarter six times this season. Both Jett Duffey and SaRodorick Thompson are each coming off excellent games for the Red Raiders, who piled up 483 yards against Kansas. It was a fluke that they lost and I like them to rebound Saturday afternoon in Morgantown.

Game: Baylor @ TCU (+2.5)

Selection: Baylor -2.5

Score: Baylor 29 - TCU 23

Result: Win

Notes: I'm not going to overthink this one. Baylor struggled with West Virginia last week but it was also positive that the Bears could lean on their defense when their offense was clicking. Quarterback Charlie Brewer still threw for a pair of touchdowns and now has 14 on the year, compared to just three interceptions. On the other side, TCU heads into the weekend with some uncertainty at quarterback. Max Duggan was knocked out in the fourth quarter of last week's loss to Oklahoma State and backup Mike Collins was also injured on the final play of the game. Even if Duggan plays, he threw three of his four interceptions on the season last week in that loss to the Cowboys. The Horned Frogs own this series, winning four straight, but the Bears should get their revenge on Saturday.

Lou Finocchiaro - CFB Week 11 (1-0) Overall: 2-4 (33% ATS)

Game: San Jose State @ Hawaii (-8)

Selection: San Jose State +8

Score: San Jose State 40 - Hawaii 42

Result: Win

Notes: San Jose is currently +8 which signals a buy. This line should get to +8.5 by kickoff so patience may earn you another half point but at either price Look for the Spartans to keep this one close in a high scoring late night affair.

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