Anthony Stalter Game Notes - Big 12 Week 14

Anthony Stalter - Big 12 Week 14 (0-3) Overall: 9-10-1 (47% ATS)

Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff - USA Today Sports

Game: Texas Tech @Texas (O/U 64)

Selection: Under

Score: Texas Tech 24 - Texas 49

Result: L

Notes: This total is too high, even for these two defenses. I waited until Friday morning to post this selection because I wanted to see if the weather forecast from earlier this week would hold up and it has: It's going to be rainy and windy in Austin this afternoon. With wind speeds between 9-14 mph expected, the passing games will be impacted. That's not a huge problem for the Longhorns, who will run the ball plenty. But for Tech QB Jett Duffey, who has played well of late, I doubt he'll be able to throw the ball all over the yard this afternoon. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams and is 48-20 in Texas' last 68 conference games.

Game: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (+13)

Selection: Oklahoma State (+13)

Score: Oklahoma 34 - Oklahoma State 16

Result: L

Notes: Last week's Oklahoma-TCU final was misleading. The Sooners had a 30-11 advantage in first downs and a 511-204 advantage in yards, yet only beat the Horned Frogs by four points. Oklahoma led by 21-0 in the second quarter, but turned the ball over three times, which included a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown. That was a potential 14-point swing. That said, while that final was misleading, 13 points for the “Bedlam Game” is too much. The Cowboys have won four straight and the nation's leading rusher in sophomore Chuba Hubbard, who needs 168 more rushing yards to become the 32nd player in FBS history to reach 2,000 in a season. With a strong running game and a defense that, after surrendering 45 points in back-to-back losses to Texas Tech and Baylor in October, has played much better of late, I like the value in Oklahoma State. Yes, the Sooners should have won more comfortably a week ago versus TCU. That said, Oklahoma has walked a tight rope for three straight weeks following the loss to Kansas State. I don't see a Sooners blowout here.

Game: Baylor @ Kansas (O/U 51)

Selection: Under 51

Score: Baylor 61 - Kansas 6

Result: L

Notes: It's going to be windy all weekend in the Midwest, which sets up opportunities to cash the under in certain matchups. This is one of those matchups. With wind gusts expected to be in the 15-25 mph range, I'm surprised to see that the total has only dropped from 53.5 to 51. Granted, oddsmakers can't drop the number too far since Kansas is surrendering 35.5 points per game this season, but it's not as if Baylor's offense is some juggernaut. The Bears have built their 10-1 record on the back of their defense, which is allowing 19.8 points per game on the season and 18.8 PPG on the road. While a long shot, Baylor still has an opportunity to clinch a berth in the college football playoff if it can win out. This is pure conjecture on my part, but I doubt Bears coach Matt Rhule takes any chances this weekend in Lawrence. Given the windy conditions, I expect Baylor to lean on its defense and running game, which will limit possessions and keep the clock moving. Both factors should limit scoring and cash the under.


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